The Fiscal Forecast — Issue #001
Navigating legislation, economic shifts, and financial leadership
Welcome to the inaugural edition of The Fiscal Forecast.
I’m Mohammed Filali, and for over a decade I’ve helped businesses and professionals navigate the complex intersection of tax policy, economic change, and strategic finance. This newsletter is my way of cutting through the noise—delivering one focused insight on legislation, one clear-eyed view of the economy, and one actionable takeaway for financial leaders.
This month’s theme: Clarity in complexity. As new provisions of the Big Beautiful Bill begin to take shape, we’re starting where it matters most: your bottom line.
🏛️ BBB Spotlight: Tax Provisions for Small Business
Focus: Section 102 — Small Business Expensing & Deductions
The Clause (Simplified): This section expands immediate expensing limits for qualified business property (equipment, software, vehicles) from $1.16M to $1.5M for tax years 2026-2028. It also extends the phase-out threshold to $3.5M in total capital expenditures.
Why It Matters: ✅ Cash flow boost: Small businesses can deduct more, sooner—reducing taxable income in the year of purchase. ✅ Investment incentive: Lowers the effective cost of upgrading equipment or technology. ⚠️ Watch the phase-out: Businesses spending >$3.5M on capital assets will see reduced benefits.
Impact by Audience:
| Audience | Key Takeaway |
|---|---|
| Small Business Owners | Consider accelerating planned equipment purchases into 2026 to maximize the higher expensing limit. |
| CFOs / Finance Leaders | Model the impact on Q4 capital budgets; this may shift timing of major investments. |
| Tax Professionals | Update client checklists for Section 179 planning; document asset placements carefully. |
Action Item: 🔍 Review your 2026 capital expenditure plan. If you’re near the $3.5M threshold, consult your tax advisor on timing strategies.
📈 Monthly Rearview: Economy & Society
By The Numbers
(Data updated: {{current_date}})
| Indicator | Current Value | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| CPI Inflation (YoY) | 2.4% | 2.4%. 0% CANGE |
| Federal Funds Rate | 3.50%–3.75% | Unchanged (Fed held steady at March 18 FOMC) |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.4% | ⬆️ Rising (up from 4.3% in January) Trading Economics |
| S&P 500 (MoM) | {~ -4.0% | Declining (worst monthly performance since March 2025) |
Indicator Source & Details
CPI Inflation February 2026 CPI showed prices rose 0.3% MoM and 2.4% YoY; March CPI report not yet released (scheduled April 10) [[6]][[10]]
Fed Funds Rate FOMC voted 11-1 on March 18, 2026 to hold benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75%; next meeting May 2026 [[13]][[15]]
Unemployment February 2026 BLS report: unemployment rose to 4.4%, with nonfarm payrolls down 92,000 [[27]][[29]]
S&P 500 Index declined >4% in March 2026 amid Middle East tensions and volatility; closed near 6,550 on March 24 [[31]][[37]]
By The Numbers
(Data updated: March 24, 2026)
| Indicator | Current Value | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| CPI Inflation (YoY) | 2.4% | ➡️ Steady |
| Federal Funds Rate | 3.50%–3.75% | ➡️ Unchanged |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.4% | ⬆️ Rising |
| S&P 500 (MoM) | ~ -4.0% | ⬇️ Declining |
Social & Economic Impact
This month, persistent inflation in services kept consumer sentiment cautious, while labor market resilience supported wage growth. For small businesses, the tension between rising input costs and pricing power remains the central challenge. Socially, remote-work normalization continues to reshape commercial real estate demand—a trend with ripple effects for local tax bases.
What to Expect Next Month
🔹 Fed meeting outcome and forward guidance 🔹 Q3 earnings season kickoff: watch margin commentary 🔹 Potential BBB regulatory guidance releases
💼 CFO Corner
(CFO news feed will be auto-populated here via API)
Leadership Insight: The convergence of new tax rules and AI tools isn’t just about efficiency—it’s about strategic agility. CFOs who integrate compliance planning with technology roadmaps will turn regulatory change into competitive advantage.
⚡ Quick Hits & Etc.
- Tool to Try: ReceiptBank — AI-powered expense tracking that integrates with most US accounting platforms.
- Read This: “The Small Business Guide to BBB Tax Changes” — cpsaccountingtax.com/bbb-guide
Thanks for reading The Fiscal Forecast.
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💬 Reply anytime — I read every response. What BBB section should we cover next?
— Mohammed 📧 cps-advisor@outlook.com | 📱 (319) 331-8228 🌐 cpsaccountingtax.com | 🔗 LinkedIn
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult your professional advisor for guidance specific to your situation. CPS Accounting & Tax Services LLC is a member of AICPA and AATP.
M.S. Filali MBA | Fractional CFO & COO 